89 terms across indicators, methodology, tribes, concepts, and features.
A tribe's predicted net support for a proposal on a 0–100 scale.
Emotional hostility between political groups, distinct from policy disagreement.
Thermometer gap between in-group warmth and out-group hostility triggered by a proposal.
Gemini 2.5 Pro's five non-obvious strategic implications from the full simulation output.
Approximately 58M Americans emphasizing order, tradition, social hierarchy, and strong national security.
The moral instinct to respect hierarchy, tradition, and legitimate authority.
Organized, visible counter-mobilization against a policy or announcement.
Estimated probability of organized opposition emerging within 30 days.
Per-tribe estimate of active opposition intensity, distinct from low acceptance.
Validation of Wind Tunnel predictions against 13 historical US policy events.
One of 27 distinct American behavioral clusters defined by moral foundations and psychographic profiles.
A tribal group that can mediate across ideological divides due to cross-cutting values.
A proper scoring rule measuring calibration quality of probabilistic forecasts.
The alignment between predicted probabilities and observed frequencies of outcomes.
The moral instinct to protect the vulnerable and avoid causing suffering.
Approximately 55M Americans balancing pragmatic governance with cross-cutting values.
TACITUS's proprietary behavioral segmentation dataset mapping 332M Americans into 27 tribes.
A group of tribes whose combined population and acceptance create a working majority.
Viability of assembling a majority supporting coalition across CiviSphere tribes.
Standardized effect size measuring the magnitude of difference between two group means.
Szymkiewicz-Simpson overlap coefficient measuring shared moral foundations between supporter and opponent tribes.
The p10–p90 range from Monte Carlo ensemble runs showing output uncertainty.
Extent to which opposing groups share cross-cutting social identities that temper conflict.
Quality of public reasoning and debate conditions surrounding a proposal.
Risk that a proposal or its opponents undermine democratic norms and institutions.
Divergence between elite policy preferences and mass public opinion.
Approximately 44M Americans, particularly younger voters, with hybrid and non-traditional ideological profiles.
Degree to which key tribes are insulated from contradicting information.
Intelligence-grade narrative summary synthesizing simulation results for decision-makers.
The moral instinct for proportionality, justice, and reciprocal exchange.
The way a message is structured to emphasize certain values, causes, and solutions.
Competitive advantage of the proposal's framing relative to available counter-frames.
Full Gemini 2.5 Pro AI analysis for all 27 tribes — deepest contextual intelligence.
Tendency for group deliberation to push members toward more extreme positions.
A bias-corrected version of Cohen's d for small sample sizes.
Signal engine pass combined with Gemini AI enrichment for Tier A tribes.
Degree to which a proposal threatens the social identity of key tribal groups.
Veto-player chain resistance — institutional friction from affected tribes and organizations.
A self-reinforcing process where individuals follow predecessors' signals, abandoning private information.
Sequential Bayesian cascade probability — risk of viral narrative amplification beyond control.
Degree to which a proposal risks degrading trust in key institutions.
A comprehensive multi-section simulation report including all KPIs, tribal analysis, and strategic guidance.
Downs's (1972) model of how public issues move through attention and decline phases.
Approximately 42M Americans prioritizing individual freedom, limited government, and market solutions.
The moral instinct against domination, oppression, and coercive authority.
The moral instinct for group cohesion, team solidarity, and protection against betrayal.
Degree of media siloing that amplifies tribe-specific narratives and reduces shared information environments.
A 50-run probabilistic ensemble that generates confidence bands around Wind Tunnel outputs.
Degree to which a proposal enables moral self-exculpation mechanisms in opposing tribes.
Haidt's six-foundation framework explaining how moral reasoning differs across political groups.
Weighted Euclidean distance from the median moral profile — how much values diverge across tribes.
Brady et al. (2017) PNAS — three-component viral outrage model (MOCI).
Susceptibility to counter-narrative attack across four framing dimensions.
The degree to which a proposal's framing can be contested or hijacked by opponents.
Where a proposal sits relative to the Overton Window of currently acceptable public discourse.
The range of policy ideas currently acceptable in mainstream political discourse.
Systematic variation of one input variable across a defined range while others are held constant.
Linear correlation coefficient between two continuous variables (−1 to +1).
Population-weighted measure of inter-group antagonism driven by identity, not just policy.
Risk that a policy creates self-reinforcing dynamics that lock in or amplify its own effects.
A moment when the problem, policy, and political streams align to enable change.
Growing divergence in political attitudes and identities across the electorate.
Approximately 68M Americans prioritizing national identity, economic populism, and anti-elite sentiment.
AI completeness analysis that grades a scenario before simulation and suggests improvements.
Approximately 65M Americans prioritizing social justice, environmental action, and systemic change.
An eight-dimensional portrait of a tribal group's values, attitudes, and behavioral tendencies.
The stock of institutional credibility available to spend on implementing change.
SHA-256 hash of simulation inputs enabling exact result replication.
System's ability to absorb opposition and adapt without catastrophic breakdown.
Degree to which a proposal threatens non-negotiable sacred values in key tribes.
Non-negotiable values held to be absolute — not tradeable for material benefits.
The moral instinct around purity, sacredness, and avoiding contamination.
AI-powered narrative context and reframing suggestions added to a scenario.
Parameter sweep testing how much output indicators change when input signals vary.
Deterministic simulation engine producing results in under 100ms with no API calls.
Informal community legitimacy required for sustained operational acceptance.
Community legitimacy and acceptance required for operational sustainability.
Rank-order correlation coefficient — robust to outliers and non-normal distributions.
Risk that minority-opinion holders suppress public expression due to fear of social isolation.
Preference for inaction — tribes' tendency to favor the current state over proposed changes.
Politically unexpected cross-ideological alliances around a shared policy interest.
Unusual cross-ideological alignment — ideologically distant tribes supporting the same proposal.
A tribal group near the acceptance threshold (40–60%) that can be moved by strategic framing.
Probability of conflict dynamics spreading from this proposal to other policy domains.
Issue-attention cycle phase multiplier — how quickly public attention decays over 90 days.
An institutional or political actor whose agreement is required to change the status quo.
Number and cohesion of institutional veto players capable of blocking implementation.
TACITUS's political polarization risk simulator — test ideas before they face the public.
Kingdon policy window — alignment of problem, policy, and political streams.