Wind Tunnel
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Find Your Tribe
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by TACITUS

WIND TUNNEL BY TACITUS

Simulate political reactions
before they go viral.

For policy teams, communications directors, campaign strategists, and corporate affairs.

27 behavioral tribes · 34 risk indicators · one simulation

Built on Moral Foundations Theory (Haidt, 2012) · CiviSphere v1.0 · 332M Americans modeled

0KPIs
0Tribes
0MAmericans
0Historical Events
LIVE RISK ENGINE · ...

What are you about to announce?

Describe any policy, product launch, or corporate decision. Get an instant Polarization Risk Score powered by 27 behavioral tribes.

⌘+Enter to score0/500
Polarization Risk Score · Top Tribes · AI Strategic Assessment

Powered by CiviSphere v4.2 · 27 behavioral tribes · 34 KPI indicators · Signal + Monte Carlo engine

27Behavioral Tribes
12Risk KPIs
6Moral Foundations
<60sPer Simulation
CiviSphere v1.0
The Stakes

Polarization Isn't Just Political. It's Operational.

Every organization faces the same challenge: decisions made without understanding the societal landscape fail. Not because the idea was wrong, but because the reception was unpredictable. Wind Tunnel fixes that.

🏢
Corporate Leaders
$890M avg brand value lost

when product launches misread cultural signals across demographic groups

Allianz Economic Research 2024

🗳️
Campaign Strategists
73% of failed campaigns

cited failure to anticipate cross-tribal backlash as the primary cause

Harvard Business School

📋
Policy Professionals
Top 5 global risk

Societal polarization ranked among top systemic risks for the next decade

WEF Global Risks Report 2025

From Bud Light to Disney, from Tesla to campus protests — organizations that misjudge polarization dynamics face boycotts, reputational damage, and talent flight. Wind Tunnel by TACITUS is the most efficient way to test polarization risk, find common ground, and reduce backlash before you commit budget or reputation.

THE POLITICAL RISK LANDSCAPE

The Stakes Have Never Been Higher

Organizations that misread the polarization landscape face boycotts, reputational damage, and lost market value — often from decisions that seemed routine.

Brand boycotts now cost billions

Consumer boycotts triggered by perceived political positioning have erased billions in market value. A single social media post can activate tribal opposition at scale. Wind Tunnel catches this before it happens.

Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, 2025

82% of marketing leaders fear political fallout

Marketing executives report that political and societal risk is now a top concern for brand strategy. Most have no quantitative tool to measure it before launch.

Forrester Research, 2024

Political spending is now a material risk

CEO political affiliations, PAC donations, and corporate policy positions are tracked, scored, and weaponized by activist groups on both sides of the political spectrum.

Center for Political Accountability, 2025

ESG backlash costs companies on both sides

Companies face backlash whether they advance OR retreat on ESG, DEI, or social issues. The polarization risk is bidirectional — silence is not safety.

WEF Global Risks Report, 2025

Wind Tunnel by TACITUS was built to close this gap. Our CiviSphere model maps the behavioral terrain of 332 million Americans — 27 behavioral tribes across 6 macro-categories, each profiled on moral foundations, psychographic dimensions, and signal-weighted reaction models. Know your polarization exposure in 60 seconds.

Who Uses Wind Tunnel

Who Uses Polarization Risk Intelligence?

From the boardroom to the campaign war room — Wind Tunnel gives decision-makers quantified intelligence before every high-stakes communication.

📢

Campaign Strategists

Test messaging before it reaches voters

Simulate how 27 behavioral tribes react to your messaging. Find the framing that maximizes cross-tribal support before you spend media budget.

🏢

Corporate Communications

Score announcements before the press conference

Run every major announcement through Wind Tunnel. Get a Polarization Risk Score, identify hostile tribes, and reframe for minimal backlash.

📺

Ad Agencies & Brand Teams

Polarization-proof creative before media spend

Pre-test campaigns against all 27 tribes. See which creative concepts carry hidden tribal triggers before you commit production budget.

🏛️

Policy & Government Affairs

Model stakeholder reactions before the vote

Map the full coalition and opposition landscape for any proposed regulation. Find narrative bridges between strange-bedfellow opponents.

📊

ESG & Risk Officers

Quantify political exposure for the board

Get quantified, reproducible Polarization Risk Scores for every major initiative. Export board-ready briefings backed by peer-reviewed methodology.

Run Your First Simulation →

Free · No credit card required

FOUR-STEP PROCESS

How It Works

From landscape definition to auditable intelligence in four clear steps.

1

Describe Your Decision

Type your policy, announcement, or product launch in plain language. No special format required.

CiviSphere scopes the relevant stakeholder ecosystem from free text.

landscape_input.txtPOLICY
Policy: Universal Basic Income
2

27 Tribes React

Our CiviSphere model simulates how all 27 behavioral segments of America respond—simultaneously.

Watch categories emerge and diverge across the ideological map.

PL
CT
LB
PR
AR
EM
3

34 Risk Indicators Fire

The simulation engine calculates polarization risk, coalition feasibility, backlash probability, and 31 more academic-grade metrics.

Every KPI is grounded in peer-reviewed social science.

TOL
88%
MAGA
19%
SSV
41%
TUT
91%
4

Get Your Strategy

Receive a prioritized action plan: who to engage, what to say, and when to say it.

Every output is traceable, reproducible, and export-ready.

> Running scenario: "Phase-out by 2030"...
> Coalition stability: 74% (deterministic)
> Leverage shift detected in Tribe #4
> Report generated: audit_trail_0042.pdf
INTERACTIVE SHOWCASE

Live Analysis Examples

Real scenarios. Real tribal data. See exactly what Wind Tunnel surfaces — risk scores, polarization drivers, narrative levers, and per-tribe reframing strategies.

Run This Scenario →
Run This Scenario →

A monthly $1,000 universal basic income for all adult U.S. citizens, funded through a combination of a 10% value-added tax (VAT) and a 2% annual wealth tax on net worth exceeding $50 million.

62RISK SCORE

Polarization Risk

COMPOSITE SCORE

050100
74
Polarization Index
HIGH RISK
Supporters
5 tribes
37.2M population
Opponents
15 tribes
142.5M population
Swing
7 tribes
84.4M population

Tribal Response Heatmap

Supportive
Swing
Opposed
Urban Woke SocialistsUWS
82%hope
Eco-Radical ActivistsERA
72%hope
Tech-Optimist LiberalsTOL
88%joy
Academic Critical TheoristsACT
68%neutral
Diaspora HumanitariansDH
76%hope
Fiscal Moderate DemocratsFMD
52%anxiety
Eco-Pragmatist BipartisansEPB
48%neutral
Pro-Business CentristsPBC
35%fear
Suburban Swing VotersSSV
45%anxiety
Institutional TrustersIT
58%neutral
Free-Market AnarchistsFMA
8%anger
Civil LibertariansCL
22%fear
Crypto-NationalistsCN
15%anger
Health Freedom AdvocatesHFA
25%fear
MAGA NationalistsMAGA
28%anger
Rust Belt ProtectionistsRBP
42%neutral
Anti-Woke Cultural WarriorsAWCW
20%disgust
Rural Independence MovementRIM
30%fear
Evangelical TraditionalistsET
22%fear
Law-and-Order PatriotsLOP
18%disgust
Climate Skeptic RealistsCSR
15%anger
Sovereign Security HawksSSH
12%anger
Techno-Utopian TranshumanistsTUT
55%joy
Anti-Globalist IsolationistsAGI
32%anxiety
Conspiracy PragmatistsCP
25%fear
Post-Ideological NomadsPIN
52%neutral
Authoritarian AggressorsAA
28%disgust

Progressive-Optimist Coalition

72% consensus
UWSERATOLACTDH

37.2M population represented

Anti-Redistribution Alliance

65% consensus
PBCFMACLCNHFAMAGAAWCWRIMETLOPCSRSSHAGICPAA

142.5M population represented

Common Ground Analysis

Broken Welfare System

All tribes agree the current means-tested welfare bureaucracy is inefficient, demeaning, and creates perverse incentives. Even strong UBI opponents prefer unconditional cash over the status quo.

Progressive LeftLibertarianPopulist RightCentrist

Bridge Strategy: Frame UBI as welfare simplification, not expansion. Emphasize eliminating bureaucratic overhead and trusting individuals.

Economic Anxiety Is Universal

From tech workers fearing AI displacement to rural communities losing factories, economic insecurity cuts across ideological lines. The desire for a financial floor unites more than it divides.

EmergentPopulist RightProgressive LeftCentrist

Bridge Strategy: Lead with shared economic vulnerability. Use messengers from diverse economic backgrounds telling parallel stories.

Distrust of Elites

Both populist right and progressive left deeply distrust billionaires and corporate influence. The wealth tax component resonates across this unlikely coalition.

Populist RightProgressive LeftEmergent

Bridge Strategy: Position UBI as the people reclaiming wealth from elites. Use anti-establishment framing that avoids left-right coding.

Mitigation Strategies

Rename to "American Dividend"

Low

Rebrand away from "Universal Basic Income" to avoid welfare connotations. "Freedom Dividend" or "American Dividend" activates patriotic identity frames.

Impact: Reduces opposition by 12-18% among right-leaning tribes

Bipartisan Messenger Coalition

Medium

Deploy a Silicon Valley CEO + Rust Belt union leader + evangelical pastor as joint spokespeople to break the "progressive project" frame.

Impact: Shifts 3 swing tribes toward support

Deficit-Neutral Fiscal Model

Medium

Publish CBO-style scoring showing exact revenue projections. Show how UBI consolidates fragmented welfare programs.

Impact: Neutralizes #1 objection among centrists

Privacy-First Distribution

High

Propose distribution through existing IRS direct deposit infrastructure. Publish privacy impact assessment. No new surveillance systems.

Impact: Reduces libertarian opposition by 20%

Strategic Recommendations

#1HIGH

Publish Deficit-Neutral Fiscal Model

Launch a deficit-neutral fiscal model with CBO-style scoring, showing exact revenue projections from VAT and wealth tax, to neutralize the "how do we pay for it" objection dominating centrist and right-leaning discourse.

#2HIGH

Recruit Bipartisan Messengers

Pair a Silicon Valley CEO with a Rust Belt union leader and a conservative evangelical pastor to demonstrate cross-tribal support and break the "this is a progressive project" frame.

#3MEDIUM

Rebrand to "American Dividend"

Rebrand from "Universal Basic Income" to "American Dividend" or "Freedom Dividend" to avoid triggering welfare-state associations in right-leaning tribes and to activate patriotic-populist identity frames.

#4MEDIUM

Publish Privacy Impact Assessment

Publish a detailed privacy impact assessment and propose distribution through existing tax infrastructure (IRS direct deposit) rather than new systems, to address surveillance and CBDC fears among libertarian tribes.

#5LOW

Commission 3-Year Controlled Trial

Commission and widely publicize a 3-year randomized controlled trial in a politically mixed metro area to build an evidence base that satisfies data-driven centrists and defuses ideological objections with empirical results.

10 PRE-COMPUTED SCENARIOS

Scenario Intelligence Library

Select any scenario to see its full strategic analysis — key findings, polarization dynamics, narrative levers, and watch-list tribes.

Strategic Intelligence

Universal Basic Income ($1K/mo)

COALITION FRACTURERISK 62/100
Key Findings
5 data-grounded insights
1.

Populist Right splits 60/40 on economic anxiety lines — MAGA Nationalists see $1K as a government handout that "replaces work ethic," while Rust Belt Protectionists are mildly supportive if framed as "trade adjustment assistance."

2.

Progressive Left unanimously supports the principle but fractures on funding: Tech-Optimist Liberals endorse the VAT mechanism; Urban Woke Socialists demand a pure wealth tax and oppose VAT as regressive.

3.

Fiscal Moderate Democrats (centrist bloc, 14.2M) become the decisive swing — they support the concept but reject the 10% VAT as inflationary, making them the blocking coalition.

4.

Polarization Index of 74/100 is driven almost entirely by the economic axis (left-right), not the social/cultural axis — meaning messaging must be economic, not identity-based.

5.

Projected net acceptance: 41% — just below majority. A 6-point shift in Suburban Swing Voters (18.4M) would tip the simulation to majority acceptance.

Strategic Implication

Do not launch with VAT as the funding mechanism — it activates Fiscal Moderates as opponents and collapses the centrist bloc. Lead with the wealth tax framing exclusively. Target Suburban Swing Voters with economic security messaging before the policy drops.

Polarization Axis

Economic redistribution vs. earned reward — left/right economic axis, not social/cultural

Key Narrative Lever

Frame as "economic floor, not ceiling" — emphasizing that UBI supplements work rather than replaces it dissolves the "work ethic" objection in 4 of 5 resistant tribes.

Watch List
Fiscal Moderate DemocratsSuburban Swing VotersRust Belt ProtectionistsFree-Market Anarchists

Methodology Note

Haidt Moral Foundations: Fairness/Cheating dominates (is $1K universal, or does it reward non-work?). Economic Axis scoring (-68 average for supporters vs. +44 for opponents) predicts the divide more reliably than party ID alone.

Comparable Case: Alaska Permanent Fund (1982): universal dividend with high bipartisan approval when framed as a resource dividend, not welfare.

See what your decisions look like through 27 tribal lenses.

Built For

Who Uses Wind Tunnel

Intelligence-grade polarization analysis for the professionals who shape decisions that affect millions.

Policy Teams

Test legislation before it reaches the floor. Identify opposition vectors, build pre-emptive coalitions, and time your rollout for maximum acceptance.

See Example →

Communications Directors

Know which tribes will amplify and which will attack. Get tribe-specific messaging guides and messenger recommendations for every audience segment.

See Example →

Corporate Affairs

Simulate your ESG announcement, product launch, or workforce policy. Understand the political risk landscape before your competitors frame the narrative.

See Example →

Campaign Strategists

Map the coalition landscape for any policy position. Find strange bedfellows, identify swing segments, and optimize your messaging for maximum reach.

See Example →
Free Assessment

Which of America's 27 Tribes Are You?

36 questions. 4 rounds. Based on Moral Foundations Theory, the Schwartz Values Survey, and psychographic research from the Pew Research Center. Discover where you sit on America's real political landscape.

Political Compass PlotMoral Foundation Profile8-Dimension PsychographicsTribe Match RankingShareable Results
Takes ~4 minutes

Based on the CiviSphere behavioral model — 27 tribes modeling 332M Americans

REAL-WORLD APPLICATIONS

8 Decisions That Can Make or Break You

Every high-stakes decision carries hidden polarization risk. See exactly how Wind Tunnel helps decision-makers navigate each scenario before going public.

🗳️

Campaign Launch

The Scenario

You're about to launch a senate campaign with a border security platform.

The Hidden Risk

Your immigration framing inadvertently activates resentment among Rust Belt Protectionists who agree on the policy but reject the elite messenger delivering it.

With Wind Tunnel

In 60 seconds, see which tribes support you, which are persuadable, and the exact reframing that bridges your base with swing voters — before you spend a dollar on media.

Try This Scenario →
📦

Product Launch

The Scenario

You're launching a new line of 'sustainable' consumer products at a premium price.

The Hidden Risk

Your 'sustainability' messaging triggers Economic Anxiety Activation in working-class segments who read it as elite virtue signaling they can't afford.

With Wind Tunnel

In 60 seconds, see the Polarization Risk Score for your messaging, identify hostile tribes, and find alternative framing that resonates across income brackets without alienating your core audience.

Try This Scenario →
📋

Policy Announcement

The Scenario

Your agency is announcing a new carbon emissions regulation.

The Hidden Risk

Your policy violates the sacred economic values of Rural Independence Movement and Climate Skeptic Realists simultaneously, generating a cross-tribal backlash coalition that stalls implementation.

With Wind Tunnel

In 60 seconds, map the full opposition coalition, find unexpected allies among Eco-Pragmatist Bipartisans, and identify the economic framing that reduces resistance by 40%.

Try This Scenario →
🎤

CEO Statement

The Scenario

Your CEO wants to make a statement on the recent Supreme Court decision.

The Hidden Risk

Any statement activates one tribal coalition while alienating another. Silence is not neutral — 8 tribal groups interpret corporate silence as complicity.

With Wind Tunnel

In 60 seconds, see the Polarization Risk Score for every framing option, identify which statement minimizes total backlash, and get the exact language that threads the needle.

Try This Scenario →
📺

Ad Campaign

The Scenario

Your brand is launching a national TV campaign featuring diverse casting.

The Hidden Risk

Your creative inadvertently triggers Anti-Woke Cultural Warriors (10.6M Americans) while your diversity signals are too subtle to activate Progressive Left support you were hoping for.

With Wind Tunnel

In 60 seconds, score your creative brief across all 27 tribes, identify the hidden tribal triggers in your visual language, and find the universal framing that maximizes reach without backlash.

Try This Scenario →
📊

Board Briefing

The Scenario

Your board wants a quarterly briefing on the company's political risk exposure.

The Hidden Risk

Without quantified metrics, your risk assessment is subjective and unauditable — leaving the board unable to compare risk across decisions or track exposure over time.

With Wind Tunnel

In 60 seconds per scenario, generate reproducible Polarization Risk Scores with full methodology documentation — exactly the quantified, auditable intelligence boards can act on.

Try This Scenario →
🤝

Merger Announcement

The Scenario

You're announcing a $4B acquisition of a company with a controversial history.

The Hidden Risk

Your merger activates Elite Distrust signals in Conspiracy Pragmatists (9.9M) and MAGA Nationalists simultaneously — creating a viral narrative about monopoly power that overshadows the business rationale.

With Wind Tunnel

In 60 seconds, map the full tribal reaction landscape, identify the narrative frames that trigger viral opposition, and design a communication strategy that leads with economic benefit messaging.

Try This Scenario →
🚨

Crisis Response

The Scenario

A video of your product being misused in a dangerous way has gone viral.

The Hidden Risk

Your crisis PR response inadvertently triggers Free Speech concerns among Libertarian tribes while your safety messaging activates Authoritarian Appeal in Populist Right segments — doubling the crisis.

With Wind Tunnel

In 60 seconds, score every response option for tribal reaction, identify which statement de-escalates across the most tribes simultaneously, and get counter-narrative strategies before the news cycle moves on.

Try This Scenario →
THE COST OF GUESSING

What's Your Blind Spot Costing You?

Every major messaging failure was preventable. Wind Tunnel quantifies the risk before you take it.

The Tone-Deaf Launch

Product launch that alienates key demographic segments. Without pre-testing across behavioral tribes, a single misjudged tagline becomes a crisis management exercise.

$2-5M in crisis management + brand recovery

The Policy Backlash

Policy announcement without stakeholder mapping. The coalition you didn't see coming organizes overnight, and your 6-month timeline becomes a 12-month battle.

6-month delay + political capital burned

The Ad That Backfired

Creative that resonates with 40% but actively enrages 30%. By the time you pull the media buy, the negative earned media has already multiplied the damage.

$500K wasted media buy + negative earned media

A Wind Tunnel pre-check costs less than 1% of your campaign budget. The question isn't whether you can afford to use it — it's whether you can afford not to.

EARLY USER FEEDBACK

Time saved. Backlash avoided.

The most cost-effective way to understand how polarization will hit your idea — before it does.

Based on user feedback during pilot testing. Names abbreviated for privacy. Results may vary by use case and scenario complexity.

CAMPAIGN RISK
3 wks
research saved

"We were about to launch a national benefits campaign with a six-figure media budget behind it. Wind Tunnel flagged in under a minute that our core framing would be seen as patronizing by three of the largest swing tribes — groups we needed. That single simulation saved us weeks of focus groups and a very expensive misstep. The polarization breakdown alone was worth it."

SR
Sarah R.
Director of Public Affairs · Healthcare Advocacy Group
PRODUCT LAUNCH
$0
backlash cost

"Our product team assumed our new pricing model would only upset libertarian-leaning power users. Wind Tunnel showed us it was actually going to create a coalition between our progressive customers and our conservative ones — united by a shared distrust of corporate pricing. That's the kind of counterintuitive intelligence you can't get from a survey. We redesigned the rollout, avoided the backlash, and kept both cohorts."

MT
Marcus T.
VP Strategy & Growth · B2B SaaS Platform
<60s
Per full simulation
vs. weeks of research
27
Tribes analyzed
in one run
100%
Structured output
no interpretation guesswork
Pricing

Polarization Insurance for Every Team

Start free. Upgrade when the decision matters.

MonthlyAnnualSave 20%

Scout

See your risk score before you commit.

$0

Free forever

Start Free
  • 3 simulations per month
  • Polarization Risk Score (0–100)
  • 27-tribe overview
  • Basic executive brief

For: Individuals, journalists, students

Most Popular

Advisor

Polarization intelligence for every decision.

$39/ mo

$39/mo billed annually

Start 14-Day Trial
  • Unlimited simulations
  • Full 27-tribe deep analysis
  • Narrative vulnerability detection
  • 12 quantified risk indicators
  • Counter-narrative prediction
  • PDF & Markdown briefing export

For: Comms managers, PR pros, consultants

Command

Stress-test at scale. Brief the C-suite.

$159/ mo

$159/mo billed annually

Start 14-Day Trial
  • Everything in Advisor, plus:
  • Team collaboration (5 seats)
  • Scenario A/B comparison
  • Branded board-ready reports
  • API access
  • Priority support

For: Corporate affairs teams, agencies

Enterprise

White-glove polarization intelligence.

Custom

Contact Sales
  • Everything in Command, plus:
  • Unlimited seats
  • Custom CiviSphere models
  • Real-time monitoring
  • SSO / SAML, SOC 2-ready
  • Dedicated success manager

For: Fortune 500, government affairs

Scientific Foundation

Built on Real Political Science

Wind Tunnel doesn't invent its own theory. Every calculation is grounded in peer-reviewed research with thousands of citations.

Moral Foundations Theory

Graham, Haidt & Nosek (2009)

Six innate moral dimensions — Care, Fairness, Loyalty, Authority, Sanctity, Liberty — that predict political attitudes better than demographics alone.

How We Use It

Every tribe is profiled across all 6 foundations. Policy friction is calculated from moral profile misalignment.

Overton Window Analysis

Mackinac Center, adapted from Overton (1990s)

Maps policy positions from "Unthinkable" to "Current Policy" based on population-weighted acceptance, revealing how close an idea is to mainstream viability.

How We Use It

Each simulation places the policy on the Overton spectrum and projects trajectory over time.

Affective Polarization

Iyengar, Sood & Lelkes (2012)

Measures hostility between groups (not just ideological disagreement). Perceived polarization almost always exceeds actual polarization — a key insight for strategy.

How We Use It

Three-dimensional polarization analysis separates ideological, affective, and perceived dimensions.

Bounded Confidence Models

Deffuant-Weisbuch & Hegselmann-Krause

Opinion dynamics models showing how people only update beliefs when exposed to views within their "confidence bound" — explaining why some policies entrench divisions.

How We Use It

Temporal decay and cascade risk predictions use bounded confidence to model opinion shift over time.

Transparent methodology. Every indicator includes a methodology tooltip explaining exactly how it's calculated. No black boxes. No proprietary algorithms without explanation. The CiviSphere tribe model is open-source and auditable.

Graham et al. (2009)|Iyengar et al. (2012)|Deffuant et al. (2000)|Hegselmann & Krause (2002)|Mackinac Center / Overton
Methodology

Built on Evidence. Validated by History.

Every output is grounded in peer-reviewed social science and validated against real-world outcomes.

Grounded in Science

  • Moral Foundations Theory (Haidt 2012)
  • Affective Polarization (Iyengar & Westwood 2015)
  • Esteban-Ray Polarization Index (1994)
  • Banzhaf Power Index (1965)
  • Glasl Conflict Escalation (1982)

Backtested Against History

15 historical events. Pearson r > 0.72 correlation. Direction accuracy across ACA, Dobbs, CHIPS Act, and 12 more.

Transparent & Reproducible

34 documented KPIs with academic citations. SHA-256 reproducibility tokens. Open methodology.

Wind Tunnel by TACITUS

Don't let your next announcement
become tomorrow's crisis.

Run your first simulation in 2 minutes. No credit card required.

BUILT FOR

Campaigns|Product Teams|Policy Analysts|Comms Directors|Legal Teams|Investors

Empirical Foundation

Built on the CiviSphere open-source behavioral model. Enterprise models available. Full methodology at tacitus.ai/methodology.